According to data from the Estonian Stockpiling Agency, motor petrol consumption remained virtually unchanged at 280 million litres over the last twelve months, diesel fuel consumption increased by a few per cent to 970 million litres, and aviation fuel consumption rose to 94 million litres. For years, our total consumption of liquid fuels has remained at an easy-to-remember figure – each Estonian resident consumes exactly 1,000 litres of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel per year.
On the global market, the average price of Brent crude oil, which is extracted from the North Sea region and has the greatest impact on prices for us, fell by almost 14 per cent in 2025 to approximately $69 per barrel – the lowest level since 2020. The reason for this was a global increase in supply and an extensive recovery in production among the OPEC+ oil-producing countries, while economic growth slowed in the US, Europe, as well as Asia. Although various geopolitical events – including attacks on Iranian and Russian oil infrastructure – caused temporary price spikes, the prevailing trend for the year was falling oil prices and continued oversupply. These trends also reached Estonia, stabilising wholesale prices for liquid fuels and mitigating the impact of domestic tax increases.
Estonia experienced various developments with conflicting economic impacts. In the middle of the year, excise duty rates affecting the final price of fuel rose, but contrary to forecasts, these administrative changes did not exert significant pressure on consumption.
On 1 May 2025, the excise duty on diesel fuel rose to €0.428 per litre, i.e. 7 per cent. The excise duty on petrol rose by 5 per cent to €0.591 per litre on 1 July. Normally, a tax increase would have a negative impact on consumption, but in this case, the decline in global market prices offset the impact of the tax burden to such an extent that consumption continued to grow slightly. According to data from the Estonia Stockpiling Agency, petrol consumption increased by approximately 1 per cent year on year, while diesel fuel consumption rose by 2.5 per cent. The data confirms that the increase in fuel excise duty did not cause any significant changes in consumer behaviour.
In September, the biggest price war in a decade broke out at Estonian petrol stations, which boosted sales volumes in the autumn months, but the long-term impact on fuel sales remained unclear.
Aviation led the growth of the Estonian transport sector in 2025, with the largest increase in sales volumes. Consumption was boosted by both the general recovery of the aviation market and the entry into force of a new EU regulation. Under the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, airlines must refuel 90 per cent of the fuel they need at their final destination. The goal of the change – reducing unreasonable tankering, i.e. the practice of carrying excess fuel – is bearing fruit. Data submitted to the ESPA by aviation fuel traders show an increase in demand in Estonia of nearly 30 per cent. Considering what is happening on international markets, it can be assumed that these are structural changes and that Tallinn Airport’s role as a refuelling point will increase even further in the coming years. Although fuel consumption by airlines continues to rise, this is still a small and clearly niche market, whose impact on the transport sector as a whole remains modest.
Although significant price fluctuations occurred on the global market in 2025, the tax environment in Estonia changed, and competition intensified, the impact of these factors on motor fuel consumption remained unexpectedly modest.
Author: Gea Tiits
Oil Supply Manager at ESPA
